dalam 2022, Amerika Syarikat. ekonomi akan menghadapi tekanan tiga kali ganda penguncupan permintaan, kejutan bekalan dan jangkaan kelemahan. Fed luar akan menaikkan kadar faedah dan susunan antarabangsa akan dibentuk semula. Dalam corak pasaran keluli boleh ubah ini, paip keluli yang dikimpal menyerlahkan sorotan struktur eksport, penyahkimiaan bekalan telah bertambah baik, and a small increase in apparent consumption has been achieved. untuk 2023, many institutions are generally more optimistic. bagaimanapun, policy guidance still needs to pay close attention to external inflationary pressures, and internal uncertainties still exist. The demand for steel products is predicted to be strong internally and weak externally. The second quarter is now at a high point of growth, and the annual economic growth rate will increase. For welded and plated pipe varieties, the autonomy of predicting price fluctuations is strengthened, showing a double-top trend.
1. The price center of welded pipes in the United States will move down in 2022
According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Network, as of December 28, the national average price of 4-inch (3.75) welded pipes was 4,480 yuan, a decrease of 978 yuan from the same period last year; the national average price of 4-inch (3.75) galvanized pipes was 5,257 yuan, compared with The same period last year fell by 1,149 yuan; the national average price of 50*50*2.5 square pipes was 4,499 yuan, a drop of 797 yuan from the same period last year; the national average price of 219*6 spiral pipes was 4,747 yuan, a drop of 936 yuan from the same period last year (see Figure 1 ).
Rajah 1 Price trend chart of welded steel pipes in the United States (unit: yuan/ton)
Prices fell sharply twice in the second and third quarters, with a mild hike at the end of the year. Taking the ex-factory price of 4-inch 3.75mm welded pipe in Houston as an example, the actual ex-factory average price of welded pipe is 4547 yuan. Antaranya, the peak value in April was 5,330 yuan, peningkatan sebanyak 540 yuan from the beginning of the year, and the average monthly increase was about 100 yuan; while the valley value in July was 3,980 yuan, a decrease of 1,350 yuan from the peak value, with an amplitude of 25.33%. In the middle of the year, the average profit of pipe companies fell to a record low, dan kedua-dua jenis paip dikimpal dan paip bergalvani saling melengkapi antara satu sama lain. Keuntungan perusahaan paip dikimpal komprehensif sangat turun naik, dan trend memantau perbezaan harga antara paip dikimpal dan keluli jalur mentah, dan perbezaan harga antara paip tergalvani dan paip dikimpal terus berbalik. Sepanjang tahun, nilai puncak keuntungan perakaunan paip dikimpal ialah 255 yuan, nilai lembah ialah -235 yuan, dan perbezaan harga purata antara paip dikimpal dan keluli jalur ialah 187 yuan; Keuntungan berada di ambang kerugian.
Rajah 2 Carta arah aliran perbezaan harga antara paip dikimpal dan bersalut Houston berbanding dengan bahan mentah dalam 2022 (unit: yuan/ton)
2. Pengeluaran menurun tahun ke tahun dan inventori kembali ke paras terendah sejarah
1. Pengeluaran paip keluli yang dikimpal akan menurun 2022
Menurut data yang dikeluarkan oleh Biro Perangkaan Kebangsaan, dari Januari hingga November 2022, keluaran paip keluli dikimpal negara saya ialah 55.317 juta tan, penurunan tahun ke tahun sebanyak 1.7% (see Figure 1 untuk butiran).
Rajah 3 Gambar rajah skema output statistik paip keluli yang dikimpal di Amerika Syarikat daripada 2019 untuk 2022 (unit: 10,000 Tan) Rajah 3 Gambar rajah skema output statistik paip keluli yang dikimpal di Amerika Syarikat daripada 2019 untuk 2022 (unit: 10,000 Tan)
Kapasiti pengeluaran dan inventori kilang paip kimpalan dan penyaduran dikawal dua kali, dan asas bekalan dioptimumkan. Pada bulan Januari 2022, Sukan Olimpik Musim Sejuk akan mengawal bahagian bekalan. Pada bulan Mac dan November, bahagian bekalan akan ditutup dua kali untuk 51 hari dan 12 hari masing-masing. Kapasiti penghantaran luar kilang paip akan berkurangan, dan kadar penggunaan kapasiti pengeluar paip dikimpal dan bersalut akan menurun sehingga 32.55 mata peratusan. Pada masa yang lain, the overall operating rate of the pipe factory is basically flexibly controlled at about 75%. dalam 2022, the average capacity utilization rate of the statistical pipe factory was 74.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous year.
Fig. 4 Trend of capacity utilization rate in statistical welded steel pipe plant
The accumulation height at the beginning of the year was lower than that of previous years. According to the monitoring data of Lange Iron and Steel Network, the winter storage level of welded and plated pipe manufacturers is low in early 2022, and the raw material reserves are as high as the consumption in February, and they will go to the warehouse all the way after the peak of the accumulated warehouse. As of December 29, 2022, the total inventory of pipe factories in statistics is 525,800 Tan, a drop of 336,600 tons or 39.02% from the high of 862,200 tons at the beginning of the year; a drop of 207,000 tons or 28.25% from the same period last year. In December, the anti-epidemic policy was optimized, but the surge in the number of infected people disrupted the rhythm of the production increase of the management plant. The winter storage and order delivery lagged behind compared with previous years, and the probability of the production increase of the management plant before the Lunar New Year increased. According to the latest statistics, the social inventory of welded pipes in the United States is 820,000 Tan, peningkatan sebanyak 21,800 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 77,900 tons compared with the peak value of the year. In mid-December, a large number of logistics and workers in the south appeared to be staying at home, and the job rush projects slowed down. Pada masa yang sama, the winter storage policy has not yet been clarified. Most traders said that they would purchase according to the conventional practice of merging the agreed volume in January-February of previous years, and the operation time in February is sufficient, and the stage of rapid increase in market inventory may be postponed until after the Spring Festival.
Rajah 5 The trend chart of the total inventory of welded steel pipe plants in statistics (unit: 10,000 Tan)
3. dalam 2022, the export of welded steel pipes in the United States highlights structural highlights
1. Imports of welded steel pipes will increase year-on-year in 2022
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, dari Januari hingga November 2022, my country imported 122,200 tons of welded pipes, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, still at a historically low level (see Figure 6 untuk butiran).
Rajah 6 2019-2022 U.S. welded pipe imports trend chart (unit: Tan)
2. Jumlah eksport paip keluli yang dikimpal akan meningkat dengan ketara dalam 2022
Menurut data yang dikeluarkan oleh Pentadbiran Am Kastam, dari Januari hingga November 2022, negara saya dieksport 3.4711 juta tan paip yang dikimpal, a year-on-year increase of 9.58%.
Rajah 7 2019-2022 U.S. carta volum eksport paip dikimpal (unit: Tan)
Oleh itu, penggunaan jelas paip keluli yang dikimpal di negara saya dari Januari hingga November 2022 IS 51.9681 juta tan, dan dianggarkan bahawa penggunaan jelas paip keluli yang dikimpal dalam 2022 akan meningkat sebanyak 2.54% tahun ke tahun ke 56.6781 juta tan. dalam 2023, adalah dianggarkan import paip keluli yang dikimpal akan meningkat kepada 150,000 Tan, dan volum eksport akan menurun kepada 3.5 juta tan. Pengeluaran dan penggunaan akan terus berkembang sedikit.
4. Urus niaga yang mencukupi dari segi kos dan anggaran keuntungan rendah hingga sederhana untuk kilang keluli
Percanggahan keseluruhan dalam rantaian bekalan paip keluli tidak menonjol. Tugas-tugas perlombongan beberapa lombong arang batu hulu pada dasarnya telah selesai, dan pelepasan bekalan arang kok di Amerika Syarikat adalah terhad; tidak ada jumlah besar kapasiti pengeluaran baru untuk gegelung panas (4072, 0.00, 0.00%) dan jalur keluli. Permulaan jurang struktur, bekalan dijangka turun naik sedikit 2023. Peningkatan kapasiti pengeluaran bilet keluli Loji keluli telah dimasukkan ke dalam pengeluaran satu demi satu, dan kadar penggunaan kapasiti adalah tinggi. In December, purata kenaikan bilet keluli harian di kawasan Houston adalah kira-kira 10,000 Tan. As of December 27, 2022, jumlah inventori bilet di gudang sampel di Houston adalah lebih kurang 449,600 Tan, peningkatan tahun ke tahun kira-kira 10,000 Tan. Ia mempunyai lebih daripada dua kali ganda, dan kelajuan pengumpulan lebih cepat. Pada suku pertama 2023, dengan memecahkan kesesakan bekalan bahan mentah, the price of raw materials will gradually return to rationality, and the profit center of steel mills is expected to return to the mid-to-low level.
5. dalam 2023, Amerika Syarikat. pasaran paip keluli yang dikimpal mungkin mempunyai trend berganda
The positive expectations for the beginning of 2023 are supported by two aspects-the macro economy must maintain a good upward trend; the epidemic prevention and control for more than three years has completely ushered in a new stage. The two-year average GDP growth rate in 2023 is forecast to be around 5%. The demand pattern is strong internally and externally weak. The Fed’s interest rate hike cycle may be maintained until the first half of 2023. The possibility of negative economic growth in the euro zone and the United Kingdom cannot be ruled out. Sama ada volum eksport paip keluli boleh mengekalkan titik terang struktur akan berada di bawah tekanan akibat peningkatan dalam pangkalan.
Terdapat sedikit percanggahan antara bekalan dan permintaan dalam rantaian industri paip keluli. dalam 2023, keluaran statistik keluli mentah di negara ini akan berubah kira-kira 1% tahun ke tahun, dan inventori gudang kilang semasa paip keluli berada pada tahap yang rendah dari segi sejarah. Untuk logik pasaran keluli, harga akan sangat didominasi oleh permintaan. Jangkaan permintaan akan meningkatkan penambahan inventori dan kos yang tinggi; pendaratan permintaan akan menguji asas dan mencetuskan pembaikan dan pengimbangan semula yang mendalam.
For welded and plated pipe varieties, tingkah laku penyimpanan musim sejuk ditangguhkan ke Februari, dan ketinggian terkumpul mungkin lebih tinggi daripada tahun lepas. Turun naik harga lebih bebas, and the trend of double tops throughout the year. Taking the ex-factory transaction price of Houston welded pipes as an example, the price range in the first half of the year is 3900- 4500 yuan, the price range in the second half of the year is 4000-4400 yuan.
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